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Thread: Aren't you lucky?

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  1. #1
    cogito ergo doleo Keke Le Cat's Avatar
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    Apr 2008
    Hilbert Space

    Default Aren't you lucky?

    The chances of you existing:

    If you go back 10 generations (250 years) the chance of you being born at all is at most 1 divided by 6 x 10100 or
    1 in 60000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000 000000000000000000000000000000000000.
    In gambling, even a chance of 1 to 100 is not worth a gamble.
    Are you ever lucky to be alive!!

    If you go back 1 million years or 40 000 generations (each generation is considered 25 years), your chance of being born is at most 1 in 1.8 x 10403167 or
    18 with 403,166 zeros after the 1.

    In other words your chances of existing is essentially zilch, even if we were considering this possibility only a short 250 years ago.
    Right now you do exist, so the actual chance is 100%, but the predicted likelihood in the past of you being born would be essentially zero.

    The calculations of these numbers (calculations shown below) tend to overestimate your chances of being.
    They only include numbers based on your father's contribution, his father's contribution, his father contribution, and so on. In other words the calculations are based only on the direct male line.
    They do NOT include the following factors that would make the chances of your existence even less:
    - your mother's contribution
    - the men and women that died in war, famine, disease without or with fewer offspring-- in some generations 50% of humanity.
    - the men and women that died from natural causes.
    - children that died before reaching the age of reproduction.
    - fetuses and fertilized eggs that died and were naturally aborted.

    You are the result of many generations of survivors. One of the people that died prematurely could have been your Dad or your Dad's Dad and so on. Somehow, none of your forefathers died before passing on his genes to the next man in your lineage. Because of the deaths mentioned most human lineages died out, while luckily yours survived. Lo and behold, here you are!
    Because of these deaths, your odds of existing were actually much less than the odds given below.

    1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987 1597 2584 4181 6765

  2. #2
    Expires- 8/30/07 KidStatutory's Avatar
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    Oct 2004


    I've been carefully cultivating the world.

    Error does not become Truth because it is widely accepted;
    Truth does not become error, even when it stands alone.

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  3. #3
    Furry Authority RedCheetah's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004


    I'm saving this and pointing it out the next time someone mentions the overwhelmingly high odds evolution didn't happen.
    "A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." - Time Enough For Love, by Robert Heinlein

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